The ONE state Obama should concentrate his campaign efforts.
Firstly, it appears as if Obama is carrying each and every state Kerry carried in 2004. To break it down, here are the states where Obama is ahead in the polls by nearly 20 points (and at times over 20). Mind you, much like some ardent Red States, these are states where the McCain Camp has made the strategic decision to NOT campaign within.
CA, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT = 146 electoral votes
Next are the states that Obama leads by nearly 15 points. Again, these are states that Dems have carried almost consistently for the last generation.
CT, ME, MN, NY, WA = 47 electoral votes
Next are states where Obama is leading by nearly 10 points. All these states, save MI, have voted Dem for the last 16 years.
MI, OR, PA, WI = 55
So far, that's 248 safely for Obama with battleground states yet to predict. Kerry and Gore carried 251 and 266 respectively. Lets assume McCain carries every state leaning in his direction by around 10 points or more as well...we're talking 200 electoral votes right there.
BATTLEGROUND STATES:
Here is a state by state breakdown; based on USA Today's Poll Headquarters website which base their numbers on polling results from dozens of polling sources all across the country.
OHIO: 48/47 near dead heat, lead McCain
FLORIDA: 47/47 dead heat
COLORADO: 49/48 near dead head, lead Obama
NEW MEXICO: 49/47 lead McCain
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 49/47 lead McCain
NEVADA: 49/46 lead McCain
VIRGINIA: 50/47 lead Obama
IOWA: 51/43 lead Obama
Given his +3 +8 pt. leads in Virginia and Iowa, respectively, lets give these states to Obama +13 +7 +248 = 268...only TWO electoral votes short. Reasoning being Democrats in Virginia are going crazy registering new Democratic Party voters at a rate of 5 to 1.
Despite McCain's narrow lead and the recent trend with the Democratic Party outpacing Republicans with regard to new voter registrations by a 3 to 1 margin within these states, lets give New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada to McCain +5 +4 +5 = 214 electoral votes.
And so it comes down to FLORIDA, COLORADO, and OHIO. The undecided voters in these states will determine the Presidency...the Bastards. Obama needs to carry only ONE OF THESE STATES to get over 270 for the win.
Florida has voted for the Bushs' but voted for Clinton in 1996. Ohio voted for Dubya both times, but Clinton both times. Colorado voted for Clinton in 1992, but Republican since. Obama's best bet is Colorado (9 electoral votes) where he is leading by only ONE point. It's his best bang for the buck in terms of campaign dollars and its all he needs to win. He can relinquish Florida and Ohio..."F" Ohio and their undecided "Look at Me!...Look at Me! I'm so effing politically important" constituents.
And that's the way I see it.
CA, DC, DE, HI, IL, MD, MA, NY, RI, VT = 146 electoral votes
Next are the states that Obama leads by nearly 15 points. Again, these are states that Dems have carried almost consistently for the last generation.
CT, ME, MN, NY, WA = 47 electoral votes
Next are states where Obama is leading by nearly 10 points. All these states, save MI, have voted Dem for the last 16 years.
MI, OR, PA, WI = 55
So far, that's 248 safely for Obama with battleground states yet to predict. Kerry and Gore carried 251 and 266 respectively. Lets assume McCain carries every state leaning in his direction by around 10 points or more as well...we're talking 200 electoral votes right there.
BATTLEGROUND STATES:
Here is a state by state breakdown; based on USA Today's Poll Headquarters website which base their numbers on polling results from dozens of polling sources all across the country.
OHIO: 48/47 near dead heat, lead McCain
FLORIDA: 47/47 dead heat
COLORADO: 49/48 near dead head, lead Obama
NEW MEXICO: 49/47 lead McCain
NEW HAMPSHIRE: 49/47 lead McCain
NEVADA: 49/46 lead McCain
VIRGINIA: 50/47 lead Obama
IOWA: 51/43 lead Obama
Given his +3 +8 pt. leads in Virginia and Iowa, respectively, lets give these states to Obama +13 +7 +248 = 268...only TWO electoral votes short. Reasoning being Democrats in Virginia are going crazy registering new Democratic Party voters at a rate of 5 to 1.
Despite McCain's narrow lead and the recent trend with the Democratic Party outpacing Republicans with regard to new voter registrations by a 3 to 1 margin within these states, lets give New Mexico, New Hampshire and Nevada to McCain +5 +4 +5 = 214 electoral votes.
And so it comes down to FLORIDA, COLORADO, and OHIO. The undecided voters in these states will determine the Presidency...the Bastards. Obama needs to carry only ONE OF THESE STATES to get over 270 for the win.
Florida has voted for the Bushs' but voted for Clinton in 1996. Ohio voted for Dubya both times, but Clinton both times. Colorado voted for Clinton in 1992, but Republican since. Obama's best bet is Colorado (9 electoral votes) where he is leading by only ONE point. It's his best bang for the buck in terms of campaign dollars and its all he needs to win. He can relinquish Florida and Ohio..."F" Ohio and their undecided "Look at Me!...Look at Me! I'm so effing politically important" constituents.
And that's the way I see it.
posted by supergoober at
2:42 PM
1 Comments:
And yet you keep claiming that you are not interested in math!!
I can't debate with you in terms of the strategy, and McCain should adopt a similar strategy.
Since I think that they are both equally lame, and their VPs are equally incompetent, I really don't care.
This is the reason, why we never get to see the candidates - we live in a perrenially uncontested state, so we will never matter in terms of electioneering.
Interestingly enough, supergoober, the stats are out on negative ads - McCain has 56% of his ads negative, Obama has 74% of his ads negative. I guess he isn't really into changing politics (this is pretty much de riguer).
I don't think this is bad - negative ads are just fine if they are truthfully distinguishing your position from someone else's. If they are lies, then that's crap. I haven't seen most of his ads, so I couldn't say, same goes for McCains ads.
Post a Comment
Subscribe to Post Comments [Atom]
<< Home